Truckload spot rates spikes are telling us something

Chart of the Week:  National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) – USA SONAR: NTIL.USA

Truckload spot rates excluding the estimated cost of fuel (NTIL) jumped 8% over the two-week period from November 19 to December 4. This increase was slightly sharper than in the previous two years, which saw slower but similarly sized moves around the Thanksgiving holiday. Sharp, sudden rate spikes have been a defining feature of the truckload market this year. While the market was expected to transition into a more balanced phase in 2025, it has instead remained stuck in a kind of purgatory, offering only brief flashes of relief for many transportation providers. What does this signal imply for the year ahead?

Spot rates are not a perfect measure of the truckload market, but they are highly effective at reflecting how carriers perceive the value of their services. For most of the past three years, carriers have had few reasons to feel more valuable, as capacity has consistently exceeded what the market could absorb.

According to Carrier Details’ analysis of FMCSA data, more than 100,000 new motor carrier of property authorities were issued in 2021–2022. Once demand returned to more “normal” levels, the market found itself with a significant capacity glut — one that has been slowly bleeding off since early 2023, decreasing by roughly 50,000 authorities.

Recent increases in regulatory pressure around English Language Proficiency (ELP) and non-domiciled CDL issuances have had some impact, but quantifying that impact has been difficult. The most visible effect occurred in October, when a Serbian news article reportedly prompted many eastern European operators — both compliant and noncompliant — to temporarily stop driving, causing a brief surge in spot rates. Rates had mostly normalized by mid-November.

The exit of capacity has also been obscured by weakening demand. Truckload tender volumes — shippers’ electronic requests for capacity — have averaged 5–10% lower year over year since mid-February, according to the newly released SONAR Truckload Volume Index (STVI). The unexpected drop in demand appears to be the primary reason the market’s transition out of a prolonged freight recession has stalled. Surprisingly, however, it has not made conditions materially worse.

At this time last year, the NTIL showed a more gradual, sustained upward trend beginning in late October and gaining momentum in early November — earlier than typical seasonality would suggest. Many interpreted this as a sign of a more durable market recovery outside normal seasonal pressure.

This year, instead of sustained movement, rates are characterized by sharper, more abrupt increases. This pattern suggests that carriers are unwilling to raise rates until it is absolutely clear they should — or can.

That hesitancy may be masking a tighter underlying market than headlines imply. It could set the stage for considerably more volatility in the coming year.

Winter weather has also played a major role over the past two years and could again push carriers offline and disrupt networks, even if demand remains weak. Spot rates are signaling that carriers are increasingly unwilling to operate in suboptimal conditions at current price levels.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.

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