Chargers vs. Eagles Monday Night Football betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

Is this a “Justin Herbert line” or a “Trey Lance line”?

Every week there’s a variation of this question that I get asked on weekly podcast appearances, as inevitably some star quarterback finds his way onto the injury report and is questionable to play. Sometimes that’s Lamar Jackson, and the downgrade is obvious (and regularly measured given how frequently he misses a game). Sometimes that’s Aaron Rodgers to Mason Rudolph, and the betting market sort of shrugs its collective shoulders, as it did when the Steelers went to Chicago a couple weeks ago.

Justin Herbert broke his left hand last Sunday, played the rest of the game against the Raiders (proving you can actually beat Las Vegas with one hand virtually tied behind your back), and then had surgery on Monday. His intent all week has been to play, and by the time you’re reading this we may have an answer to whether he will or not.

If Herbert was not able to go in this game, or in any game, and Trey Lance was required to play, naturally, the Chargers’ power rating in the betting market would go down. So, as Herbert’s lingered in the in-between universe of “questionable,” we’re needing to assess whether Eagles -2.5 was a “Herbert line,” a “Lance line,” or somewhere in between.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2, 42) at Los Angeles Chargers

The current Chargers’ rating that makes them +2 at home against the Eagles on Monday night would have made L.A. -9 against the Raiders last week. Since the Chargers were -9.5, you can see that only a minor downgrade has been put in place, thereby assuming that Herbert will play.

If you assign a team their power rating out of 100, the Chargers would be around 55 — a team rated slightly above average. Should Lance play, a fair expectation would be that L.A. would perform at a level below league-average. Assigning a Lance-led Bolts a conservative rating of 40/100, would send this line up to Eagles -6.

Perhaps ironically, the Eagles have seen a bigger downgrade than the Chargers this past week, due to Philadelphia’s upset loss at home to the Bears on “Black Friday.” Including the absence of Jalen Carter (shoulders) in this game, the Eagles have gone from the low-70s, to the mid-60s (and would have reset their line against Chicago at Eagles -5, versus the -7 it closed).

Maybe the Eagles have been re-rated to where they should be, as a good-but-not-great team, but it’s also possible that their strength — a dominant defensive front and quality cornerback play — was mitigated by the matchup with Chicago’s offensive line (ranked fourth this week by PFF) able to dominate. Now the Eagles defense faces a Chargers’ O-line that’s ranked 31st by PFF.

Does that mismatch make it more likely the Chargers decide to sit Herbert, or that he doesn’t make it through the game if he starts? Any percentage chance of that happening has to be factored into the handicap, especially knowing the Chargers (sitting in the top spot for the AFC Wild Card) have a far more important game against the Chiefs next week.

In the end, while much of that is hypothetical, what we know is that Philadelphia's offense gets to face a Chargers run defense that’s in the bottom-third of the NFL in EPA/play against opponent run plays, and Success Rate allowed. If that results in more room for Saquon Barkley, a smoother operation for a much-maligned offense may be on the horizon as well.

Pick: Eagles -2

Player props

Jalen Hurts under 193.5 passing yards (-115)

This is about necessity. The Eagles are 2-4 when Hurts is pushed to throw for 200-plus yards, and their two wins were a comeback against the Rams, and when Hurts was able to find two long pass completions over the top in Minnesota. The Chargers aren’t likely to give up that kind of coverage bust, and we don’t expect the Eagles to need to go into throw-mode.

Saquon Barkley over 72.5 rush yards (-115)

The Chargers pass defense has moved up the rankings in crucial metrics, with the help of some weaker opponents, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Eagles’ route to victory is to get Barkley going. The market has taken notice of this too, moving the yardage line up from 68.5 to 72.5 throughout the day on Sunday, but with the added possibility of closing out a win late on the ground, we’ll still expect the star tailback to make a run at 80 or more yards.

Omarion Hampton under 11.5 rushing attempts (-125)

In his five games played this season, Omarion Hampton’s average yards per carry are 3.2, 3.0, 3.7, 10.7, and 3.7. That one game stands out, and it came against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL — the New York Giants.

Hampton’s expected to be activated off Injured Reserve after missing extended time with an ankle injury, but how much should we expect him to play? The answer might come in the production of Kimani Vidal during Hampton’s absence.

Vidal has four games of 95 or more rushing yards in seven of those games while Hampton was out. So, while the Chargers rookie is the future No. 1 tailback, for this week there’s no guarantee he gets more carries.

Anytime touchdown

RB Saquon Barkley (+130)

After six touchdowns in the first eight weeks, Barkley’s been held out of the end zone in four straight. Only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs this season than the Chargers. If we like the Eagles because of Barkley’s potential for a breakout game and enough to back him over his yardage number, then we should probably like him to score at plus-money.

TE Dallas Goedert (+332)

Philadelphia's tight end apparently got lost in the crowds on “Black Friday,” but his lack of usage had to be addressed in the last week-plus. The Chargers don’t allow much to opposing tight ends in the general field of play, but only six teams have allowed more touchdowns to them, and it’s a different challenge when you have to honor the possibility of Barkley or Hurts to run one in.

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Like Barkley, Goedert is on a four-game scoring drought, but he has seven touchdowns on the season, so look for the Eagles to look back to one of their traditionally most reliable options near the goal line.

TE Oronde Gadsden (+280)

Since coming into the fold in a big way in Week 6 in Miami, the Chargers’ rookie tight end had seen at least five targets in every game played until last week, where he only saw two in a slow, easy win over the Raiders.

The Eagles' cornerback trio of Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean and Adoree Jackson match up nicely with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen, but no team has a physical option to deal with Gadsden at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds. Gadsen is also is capable of stretching the field, as he did with his lone catch for 27 yards last week.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.