Analysts Warn That Trump Would Accept a 'Tolerable' Dictatorship in Venezuela to 'Avoid Chaos'

Analysts and former officials warn that U.S. policy toward Venezuela may be shifting toward an arrangement that prioritizes stability over democratic transition, potentially leaving the country under an authoritarian system without Nicolás Maduro.

In a new opinion column for The Miami Herald, political analys Andrés Oppenheimer cited Washington insiders who say Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has steadily consolidated power since Maduro's capture on Jan. 3, while positioning herself as a cooperative interlocutor with the United States.

Oppenheimer wrote that President Donald Trump appears increasingly willing to rely on Rodríguez to govern the country, even as he signals interest in involving opposition leader María Corina Machado.

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Former Caracas mayor Antonio Ledezma, Machado's international policy coordinator, warned that Washington's reliance on Rodríguez amounts to "a short-term band-aid to avoid chaos" and will not produce stability without a plan to restore democracy. He argued that Venezuela's institutions have been "demolished by a dictatorship of which Mrs. Rodríguez was part," and said Machado and exiled opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia should be included in an urgent democratic transition plan.

Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton also criticized the approach, saying Trump had made a "major mistake" by leaving Rodríguez in power. "They're trying to re-entrench, shore up their support and stay in control of the government," Bolton said, referring to Rodríguez and other senior figures from Maduro's inner circle. He added that each passing day increases the likelihood of "a dictatorship, just without Maduro."

Recent developments appear to support concerns about closer U.S.-Rodríguez engagement, as White House officials confirmed this week that Rodríguez has been invited to visit Washington, although no date has been scheduled.

Rodríguez has said her government is engaged in dialogue with the United States "without fear" of addressing disagreements. Trump has described Venezuela's current leadership as "very smart" and previously called Rodríguez "terrific." Trump has, however, also publicly praised Machado and suggested she could play a role in future efforts with Washington, saying he would like to involve her in some capacity.

Political analysts say the administration's strategy reflects a desire to avoid institutional collapse similar to Iraq after 2003. Venezuelan political scientist Benigno Alarcón said the challenge lies in maintaining state institutions while confronting the entrenched influence of the former ruling movement, which continues to control key branches of power.

Critics warn that Rodríguez's cooperation may be tactical rather than transformative, raising the risk that Venezuela's post-Maduro transition could stabilize authoritarian rule rather than dismantle it.

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