El Mencho's Death Could Reshape Alliance Between Jalisco Cartel and Los Chapitos, Experts Say

Nearly a year prior to the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as "El Mencho," his Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) had reached an alliance with the Sinaloa cartel faction of Los Chapitos to fight rival faction La Mayiza in northern Mexico.

In an attempt to gain the upper hand over their rivals, Los Chapitos allied with the Jalisco cartel, with whom they shared drug trafficking routes, logistical and military support, and safe houses. But following the death of El Mencho on Feb. 22, experts say Los Chapitos could lose access to key resources needed to sustain the conflict.

"What is being said is that the Chapitos were receiving weapons, ammunition and hitmen from El Mencho to finance their war against the Mayos, and losing those resources will have a strong impact because they are currently very weakened. Thanks to their agreements with El Mencho they were recovering, but now without him it will be difficult," Mike Vigil, the former head of special operations for the DEA in Mexico, said in an interview with Ríodoce.

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Despite forming a temporary alliance, drug trafficking experts at InSight Crime warn that such partnerships can be volatile and subject to rapid change given the fragmented and constantly shifting nature of organized crime in the region. Now that El Mencho is dead, that alliance could be at risk.

According to Vigil, the faction led by the Guzmán family would need to offer the Jalisco cartel new territory and a large share of drug trafficking profits to keep the alliance intact, although he does not rule out the possibility that Los Chapitos could seek support from another cartel.

"Without El Mencho, the Chapitos will face a very big problem because, first of all, they will no longer have that support and they are already very weakened, which means they will have to do something to recover or seek support from another cartel," Vigil said.

While much of the attention has focused on the alliance between Los Chapitos and the Jalisco cartel, the opposing faction in the conflict has also sought support from other criminal groups.

As The Latin Times reported last year, Ismael Zambada Sicairos, the leader of La Mayiza, reportedly reached an agreement with an offshoot of the Los Zetas cartel known as Los Chukys.

Los Chukys, which has ties to the Northeast Cartel, is believed to have about 200 operatives along with collaborators and other associates.

According to journalist Oscar Balderas, negotiations began in June and were aimed at strengthening La Mayiza's territorial control. He added that La Mayiza also has the support of the Guasave cartel and the Cabrera Sarabia family.

According to security experts, La Mayiza faction is also weakened and facing a shortage of resources, although unlike Los Chapitos it still maintains allies, including Fausto Isidro Meza Flores, known as "El Chapo Isidro," a former high-ranking member of the Beltrán Leyva Organization.

Since the sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán declared war against La Mayiza, a faction loyal to Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, in September 2024, the conflict has left nearly 3,000 people dead in the state of Sinaloa, according to data from the Mexican outlet Noroeste.

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